Future Candidates Ignore Center-Right at Their Peril
by Marc A. Levin

After the May election, the Austin Chronicle crowed about the supposed end of the donut effect, which refers to the contrasting voting patterns between very liberal central Austin and the more moderate surrounding areas. Yet, the run-off results show that the donut still has bite, but was obscured in the May election due to the influx of new voters on the smoking ban and the fact that Gregg Knaupe and Jennifer Kim split the vote in the outlying areas.

The precinct-by-precinct results from the June 11 run-off are available here.

You can match that up with the polling locations here.

However, to summarize, this was a replay of the voting patterns in the 2003 run-off between Brewster McCracken and Margot Clarke, with nearly the exact same number of total voters. Clarke made up ten points compared to McCracken’s 64-36 win by having a more organized and well-funded (with public funds) campaign and by cleverly taking advantage of the toll road issue to obfuscate her opposition to new roads in general.

Clarke won only two precincts west of Mo-Pac, one of which was her own. Kim won by wide margins in all of the most conservative and Republican precincts in town from the Northwest Hills to Davenport Ranch to Circle C.

Kim also won substantial majorities, although not as hefty, in moderate swing areas like Travis Country (Mo-Pac and Southwest Parkway) and Brykerwoods Elementary on Kerbey Lane. Basically, if the precinct was not at least 55% Democrat, Kim won it.

While voter turnout tends not to be particularly high there, Kim also did very well in the middle class and working class areas north of 183 but east of Mo-Pac which is home to a sizable portion of Austin’s Asian community, many of whom worked hard to put the first Asian-American on the City Council.

Kim even won her own very Democrat central city precinct by a handful of votes (Travis High School on 1211 East Oltorf), which was no small accomplishment.

But the biggest margins came from the largely Republican and conservative strongholds such as:
Precinct 334 Pickfair Community Center (far Northwest 360 area)
Kim 390
Clarke 103

Precinct 333 Canyon Creek Elementary (far Northwest 620 area)
Kim 215
Clarke 63

Precinct 304 (Kiker Elementary - Circle C)
Kim 226
Clarke 103

In sum, it was a very broad coalition that put Jennifer Kim over the top and stymied the far left central Austin Naderites. Although it is unfortunate that neither a conservative or a Republican can be elected at this point at-large in this City, this election shows that the center-right can make a crucial difference.

At Jennifer Kim’s victory party, it looked and felt like Austin because there were people of every race, ethnicity, part of town, and political party, including no less than six Republicans. This reflects Kim’s open-mindedness and willingness to listen to all members of the community.

Having been part of losing campaigns, it is always important to be humble when your side wins. The criticism of Ms. Clarke was never personal but rather on the issues – it is quite simply the case that once the majority of Austinites were informed about Clarke’s views, they decided for the second time that she is simply too far left, even for this town.

Many centrists, Republicans, and conservatives worked hard in this election, which included sending countless emails, making calls, walking blocks, and working the polls. However, no one did more than centrist Mike Levy with his scathing letter and conservative Robert Morrow with his hard-hitting leaflets.

Our own election editions went to over 20,000 people, providing important information about the issues and the candidates overlooked by the mainstream media. Kim also did very well in her appearances on Sammy & Bob on KVET and she had the Statesman endorsement, which is most useful in non-partisan local races.

And, of course, the firefighters, police, and EMS folks made a big difference. Moderate and conservative voters are particularly likely to place public safety at the top of their priority list for local government.

This election demonstrates that future candidates for City Council and Mayor will ignore and offend centrists, Republicans, and conservatives at their peril. Austin is simply too big and too diverse for one central city voting block to dominate our local elections like they had for many years. Austin is on the move economically and we are not going back to fight the old us vs. them battles again.

Even though conservatives and Republicans can’t win an at-large city election single-handedly, Saturday’s result indicates that it may be time for conservatives and Republicans to come out of the closet in city elections. For example, dozens of liberal Democrat groups, many with the same handful of members, make endorsements (and Clarke had all but a few of them). Virtually no Republican group endorses and, if they did, political consultants in the past would have advised their candidates not to include such endorsements in their literature.

However, the conservative and Republican support for Kim was well-publicized, particularly in the Austin Chronicle, and it apparently did not hurt her. If anything, the turnout numbers seem to show that this publicity mobilized the center-right silent majority to go to the polls.

With three Council positions and the Mayor on the ballot next year, existing center-right groups should consider getting involved in city elections and new institutions and groups dedicated to this purpose should take root. Instead of being embarrassed to be associated with conservatives and Republicans, future candidates should come calling. We are part of Austin too and we are not going away.